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Integrated Combat Information System: Page 16


 
STRATEGIC ANALYSIS

The military situation suggested by the current crisis is indisputably grim for Confed, but there is absolutely no evidence at this time which could be reasonably construed to suggest that the situation is hopeless.

While the enemy attacks thus far have been overwhelming and daunting in their efficiency and completeness, their targets have been largely unarmed and isolated. The only actual military victory that can be claimed by the enemy at this time is the destruction of the Brack and its escorts, a group consisting of one small capital ship and less than a dozen tactical fighters.

The ominous elements of the enemy’s success so far cannot be ignored, however. They consist of:
  • The enemy’s apparent ability to emerge from an access point of unknown origin without warning and (at least at the time) undetected.
  • The enemy’s ability to completely seal off their targets from all communications prior to and for the duration of the attacks.
  • The speed and destructive thoroughness of the attacks themselves.

Of these three points, the third is actually the least alarming. A Confed carrier group attacking from a convenient jump point could have destroyed any of the targets so far attacked with equal dispatch using conventional naval weaponry. In destructive potential, the enemy has shown itself to be Confed’s equal, but has not yet demonstrated that it is our master.

The enemy’s communications-blocking technology does seem to represent a significant strategic advantage (although its effectiveness has been blunted now that the initial element of surprise is lost). However, the advantage thereby is no greater than, for example, the Kilrathi’s development of cloaking technology during that conflict.

Strategically, the significant questions are as follows:
  1. Will closing off the access point at Kilrah effectively halt enemy operations, or can a similar access be established elsewhere? Or perhaps the attack originated from an undiscovered staging point already within the Confed sphere?
  2. Does the force so far encountered represent a large, state-of-the-art strike force, or does the enemy have even more devastating forces staged in reserve?
 

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